Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 2.375448 2.788356 3.246844 3.793008 4.425212 5.133305 5.985852
2025-11-02 1.621969 2.139590 2.778953 3.623728 4.707310 6.047016 7.825221
2025-11-09 1.154423 1.681754 2.394419 3.421250 4.854990 6.776745 9.537084
2025-11-16 0.889490 1.411206 2.172591 3.353121 5.123069 7.660217 11.549738
2025-11-23 0.713074 1.219968 2.011432 3.319750 5.405976 8.574072 13.708540
2025-11-30 0.620257 1.134080 1.985301 3.473085 5.975324 9.968163 16.754009
2025-12-07 0.524647 1.020939 1.889833 3.489157 6.314458 11.032282 19.405258
2025-12-14 0.444973 0.918126 1.790476 3.475386 6.590339 12.013864 22.029073
2025-12-21 0.383516 0.836127 1.712014 3.481404 6.893319 13.067332 24.891722
2025-12-28 0.363709 0.832356 1.778638 3.766637 7.743076 15.182612 29.885581
2026-01-04 0.325840 0.783005 1.746286 3.850770 8.216272 16.657848 33.866604
2026-01-11 0.295368 0.743584 1.726997 3.956455 8.742438 18.288039 38.319608
2026-01-18 0.259940 0.687059 1.664570 3.967493 9.089553 19.636492 42.437993
2026-01-25 0.219961 0.611396 1.546995 3.839741 9.126954 20.372538 45.428497
2026-02-01 0.182336 0.533226 1.409349 3.642721 8.982041 20.709727 47.631031
2026-02-08 0.157857 0.484134 1.332664 3.576424 9.122435 21.670583 51.275428
2026-02-15 0.138575 0.444970 1.273625 3.543103 9.333981 22.810573 55.442467
2026-02-22 0.130296 0.435777 1.291054 3.706967 10.045926 25.165955 62.615853
2026-03-01 0.117101 0.408712 1.255189 3.724354 10.393136 26.709948 68.078508
2026-03-08 0.104422 0.380290 1.210324 3.709813 10.655842 28.081721 73.285256
2026-03-15 0.093977 0.356681 1.175051 3.716252 10.974564 29.625986 79.079434
2026-03-22 0.093154 0.365696 1.239084 4.019610 12.139842 33.414256 90.826278
2026-03-29 0.086372 0.352161 1.231300 4.109075 12.723454 35.782689 99.238340